The 2024 General Election has come and gone in Maryland, and we barely got to know it. So many Montgomery County activists spent days, weekends, and even weeks in Pennsylvania or North Carolina, or even farther flung swing states. Here in Maryland, we had to contend with unusually competitive races for a US Senate seat and also the 6th Congressional District House seat. There were also ballot initiatives — a proposed amendment to embed reproductive rights in the State Constitution — and a GOP effort to reduce the term limit for the Montgomery County Executive. And here, as in several counties, Board of Education races which featured candidates embracing the Moms for Liberty ‘anti-woke’ agenda, attacking the tenets of a liberal public school education.
With all the attention to the national Presidential election, most Marylanders were barely engaged with the local races and issues, but the candidates themselves did not do much to engage local residents. The Democratic Coordinated Campaign may have knocked a state record number of doors in the last weeks of the campaign, but you would have been forgiven if you went to vote without knowing much about the races in Maryland.
Nonetheless, multiple dramas were playing out, even at the polls, dramas with immediate consequence and also significance for dynamics of future elections in this county.
In another post, this blog will soon discuss the drama surrounding local party rules and the Board of Education races. This was a concern that was discussed at length early on Monday morning by one Dolly Kildee, the moderator at the end of the monthly zoom meeting of the Rockville Mid-County Democratic Breakfast Club. Dolly raised important concerns about what happened at the polls, but that discussion will have to be put on hold, as this post will focus on the massive impact of Question A on the County Executive and the Council.
While the future is always uncertain, we can point to a political earthquake which will surely follow the fault line created by the passage of Montgomery County Question A, a referendum by which the GOP, backed by local real estate interests, took aim at County Executive Marc Elrich, and successfully derailed his re-election hopes. With Elrich now ineligible to seek re-election to a 3rd term, the County Council is likely to thrown into a level of chaos we’ve seen only once before, in 2018, when the 3-term limit first took effect. In that year, three Council members who were suddenly termed out of their tenure on the Council instead ran in the Democratic Primary to replace Executive Ike Leggett, who was also termed out of his office. And, when Elrich won the primary, a 4th Council member, Nancy Floreen (also ineligible for reelection) abandoned the Democratic Party to challenge Elrich as an independent candidate in the General Election.
Because of the shakeup caused in 2018, by the new term limits taking effect, the Council had 3 new at-large members (Evan Glass, Will Jawando, and Gabe Albornoz), along with a new representative in District 1, Andrew Friedson. Flash forward to the present day — Each of these members is still eligible to seek one more term on the Council, but there is a great deal of speculation about each of them lining up to run for the County Executive opening. That will have a cascading effect down to the Council, both in its operations now, and in the 2024 primaries, which may be nearly as chaotic as the 2018 race. In 2018, 33 candidates were on the ballot for the 4 at-large seats, many of whom were hoping to qualify for the public campaign finance matching fund.
In the end, it was difficult to discern whether fundraising success was decisive in the 2018 primary or whether it merely tracked the candidates’ relative stature and likely success in the vote. Two of the challengers, Glass and Jawando had run for office previously, and were able to max out their $250k matching totals months before the vote, and the one incumbent in the race, Hans Reimer, broke the $200k level at the same time, topping out eventually at over $240k. Of the eventual winners, only Albornoz was out-raised by any of the eventually unsuccessful candidates, with 2 candidates, Bill Conway and Hoan Dang, out-raising the former Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee chair Albornoz. Albornoz won the 4th at-large seat, barely edging out then Gaithersburg City Councilmember Marilyn Balcombe, who did not participate in the public finance program.
Other challengers included schoolteacher Chris Wilhelm, who turned his early fundraising strength into a 6th place finish, and also leftist organizer Brandy Brooks, who qualified late in the campaign, but ended up just behind Wilhelm in 7th place in the vote, and 9th in total fundraising among the publicly financed at-large candidates. A dozen candidates qualified for the matching funds. One other candidate was disqualified from receiving matching funds because she had a consequential error in her filing and hadn’t crossed the $20k threshold when she submitted for the matching funds. That harsh result has been written out of the regulations, allowing future candidates the opportunity to refile and correct any issues in their initial filing.
It is far too early to even begin to consider who might throw their hat into the ring to run for the Council in 2026, but Marc Elrich has publicly mused about the possibility. The term limit which still applies to the Council only bars one from a 4th consecutive term in the Council. Nothing there bars a future return to the Council. Other candidates will surely emerge, if any of the incumbent At-Large members leave their seats to run for County Executive (or some other higher profile gig). The more openings there, the larger the field will be, for sure. But, again, that’s a discussion for another time.
Friedson seems the one sure bet to forgo a 3rd term on the Council, leaving his District 1 seat to run for the Executive pose. He won election in 2018, in no small part because more progressive voters were divided among several other candidates, led by outgoing Delegate Ana Sol Gutierrez, who cleaned up in the eastern part of the District, east of Rockville Pike. Would a strong progressive have more success in 2024, if progressives were able to unite behind one candidate? Difficult to assess, but worth nothing that the district lines are quite different now. All those precincts in Wheaton and other areas east of Rockville Pike which Gutierrez won have been carved out of the district, now represented by either District 6 Council Member Natali Fani-González or District 4 Council Member Kate Stewart. It’s now a solidly upper middle and upper class district representing Bethesda, (the new) North Bethesda (west of Rockville Pike) and Potomac.
Certainly, Friedson’s renown in that district will give him great fundraising prowess, but it may also serve as an albatross around his neck, branding him as being clearly aligned with the wealthy and powerful in the County. On the flip side is Will Jawando, whose appeal in the African-American community and progressives who appreciate his support for progressive taxation efforts and his initiative on rent stabilization. There’s also the possibility of a surprise entry on the left, perhaps from Elrich’s own budget czar, Rich Madaleno, who lacks Jawando’s name recognition but is also highly praised for his expertise on budget policy. In between, we have Glass and Albornoz, who definitely have strong cores of support across the county, but haven’t used their time on the Council to brand themselves by advancing any signature legislation. And, if past is prologue, we might expect a run by some random super-rich guy promising to run the County better. David Blair? David Trone? Someone else?
There will also be a primary for the District 3 seat held by the outgoing Sidney Katz. Gaithersburg Mayor Jud Ashman is the early, clear favorite, but progressives in the county are definitely hoping for a competitive challenger.
In such a chaotic electoral scramble, it is hard to imagine the Council advancing much new legislation, but in the Trump Redux era, the work of the County government and the Council will never be more important. With news now that the state government will be facing a budget shortfall of over $5 billion in coming years, it seems likely that the County government’s budget may be in trouble too. And all of that is based on current revenue projections. If Trump makes ‘good’ on his promises to gut the civil service and perhaps move important agencies around the country, both Montgomery County and the State of Maryland may be facing a hollowing out of their tax base.
Can’t make an omelet without scrambling some eggs, but the political scramble which awaits us will be very messy.
The title of this post is “A Thanksgiving Prayer in 2024.” Perhaps that prayer is really FOR 2025 and the years to follow. The blog name is a nod to the much missed musings of the late Jonathan Shurberg in his “Maryland Scramble.” Hopefully, this blog will manage to be similarly useful. We need to hear from progressives in these dangerous times, when billionaires dictate what voices will be seen and heard.
Welcome to the Montgomery Scramble. In the spirit of the season, please share widely.
Montgomery Scramble 